How to buy vintage watches like an expert: A guide to avoiding ‘Frankenwatches’

With record-breaking auction prices for pre-owned watches like Patek Philippe and Rolex driving demand, experts share why it’s a good time to get a vintage timepiece and how to navigate the risks

Prices for vintage luxury timepieces have experienced a meteoric rise in recent years, fuelled by record-breaking auction results, leading to an explosion of the pre-owned watches market. A sector once considered niche has emerged as a multi-billion dollar industry worldwide, reflecting a burgeoning demand for such timepieces. Alexandre Bigler, head of watches for Asia-Pacific for Christie’s, says, “The vintage market is super exciting, and has been growing in Asia since 2010 ... [Buying a watch is] not only about how much money you have; it’s about your knowledge, your expertise, your patience to wait, your hunt, looking around, going to preview around the world meeting collectors. So there’s a whole community out there.”

One of the biggest records for a pre-owned watch was set in 2021 at the Phillips Geneva Watch Auction, where a pristine Rolex Daytona Reference 6263 Paul Newman sold for US$17.8 million, making it the most expensive watch ever sold at auction. Another stunning record was set in 2022 at the Phillips London Watch Auction, where a Patek Philippe reference 1518 in stainless steel realised approximately US$7 million, setting a new benchmark for the brand. Such astronomical public sales help fuel the skyrocketing prices for vintage luxury timepieces.

Unfortunately, the desire for older pieces and the hype around skyrocketing values has spawned an increase in “Frankenwatches”—supposedly vintage watches that are cobbled together using a mix of original and aftermarket parts. A popular strategy is to take an inexpensive vintage case and dial and pair them with a modern, high-grade Swiss movement.

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Above Vintage watches at Classic Watch Repair (Photo: courtesy of Classic Watch Repair)

As demand increases, so too do deceptive practices, making it even more crucial than ever to do due diligence. In June, leading Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) published an in-depth feature about the fraud behind the record-setting sale of an Omega Speedmaster ref. 2915-1 at Phillips in 2021: at CHF3.12 million (US$3.4 million), it was approximately 30 times the appraised value, and eight times more than the previous highest price for the model. But several elements of the watch did not seem to match what that model should contain. NZZ investigated the seeming discrepancies and discovered that it was, in fact, a Frankenwatch.

Such stories shouldn’t prevent you from considering such purchases though; you just need to know what to look out for, so we asked leading vintage watch experts for some tips. Michael Young co-founded Classic Watch Repair, a Hong Kong workshop that has become the go-to specialists for vintage Rolex owners; Young is known as the city’s Rolex “bracelet magician”, and has clients who come to Hong Kong specifically for his services.

Young’s partner Barry Cheung says one of the biggest issues to be aware of is the number of watches out there with missing modules. He says that a lot of people remove key components from vintage watches to either sell them separately or add them to other watches. What’s more, if a watch is sent back to the brands themselves for servicing, integral parts such as the dial or hands may be updated to bring the watch up to what they consider to be “standard”. Cheung gives the example of a customer who had a diving watch with a dial that had been weathered with a patina that added to its character; during servicing, the brand changed the dial and refused to replace the original, “devaluing it by 80 per cent”.

So why would anyone consider investing in a vintage timepiece with so many risks? According to multiple sources, the market for vintage and pre-owned luxury watches is forecast to continue expanding rapidly in the coming years.

Financial institution Morgan Stanley estimated that the secondary market for pre-owned luxury watches reached US$18 billion in 2022, up 30 per cent from the previous year. In another report by the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index, the value of vintage watches has increased by more than 10 per cent annually for the past five years, outpacing gains in stock markets and precious metals. Bloomberg further reported that, according to forecasts from LuxeConsult, a Swiss-based industry analyst and consulting firm, the market for vintage and pre-owned watches will surge to US$85 billion by 2033—more than triple the estimated US$26 billion sold in 2022.

According to analyst reports by LuxeConsult, now is a good time to invest. LuxeConsult, which partners with Morgan Stanley on watch industry research, sees the price dip in these last months of 2023— following a three per cent rise over the year—as an opportunity to buy a watch, and forecasts the market will jump 10 per cent in 2024. Before making a purchase, it is essential to conduct thorough “background research on the brand, the production numbers and their future expansion plans”, Cheung says. Christie’s Bigler adds that it is important to ask questions about the evolution of the watch, “because it’s an object that went through time, [so] it must have gone through different changes over life—its crown could have been replaced, but that doesn’t mean that it’s fake. It’s just the latest generation crown.”

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Steve Wong, who has spent the last 20 years collecting vintage Rolexes, agrees. He says that when you spot a piece you like in a vintage watch store, you must ask the dealer five questions. First: “What’s a recurring problem with this watch?”—an essential query because, he says, “in the vintage world, nothing is 100 per cent good”. Then, he says, ask, “Are all the inside parts original? Where did you get this watch from? If I offer this watch to you, how much would you buy it back for? May I take some photos?” Use those photos to both analyse the watch yourself, and to ask fellow collectors or experts on Instagram for advice and opinions before making a decision. But Wong believes the risk is almost always worth it, and collectors have nothing to lose: “You either win or learn,” he says.

Bigler has his eye on two specific watches that he believes will be worth investing in. Even though it is a quartz watch, the Patek Philippe Beta 21 has appreciated significantly since the year 2010. The other is the Patek Philippe 2499. “It’s a dream watch in many respects. First of all, it’s the second batch in the family of perpetual calendars by Patek; and [second,] in the vintage world, most of the watches are always cased in yellow or pink gold; very few are cased in white metals. It could be white gold, it could be platinum or it could be steel. So they are always in demand, and an extreme rarity.”

A final practical tip from Cheung: follow the 5-3 rule: “You should be able to identify the watch brand from five metres, and the watch reference from three metres [away].” There remain immense opportunities and intrinsic rewards for those willing to do their homework in a booming sector. With meticulous research and by following the guidance of established authorities, collecting pre-owned watches remains a fulfilling way to honour landmark innovations of the past and celebrate innovation, transformation and ingenuity.

Tatler Asia

How to buy vintage watches like an expert: What you need to know to invest in authentic timepieces and avoid ‘Frankenwatches’